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Using Hobby Statistics to Make Decisions in Diplomacy

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The School of War game continues. I’m writing about this Fall 1905 turn because it brings into focus an interesting strategic choice intersection for Italy.

Just a bit of background. The Italian formed an alliance with Turkey to stab and eliminate Austria. Italy has now stabbed the Turk (6), who is still a viable power and who occupies the strategic corner of the board.

Meanwhile, in the west, England is on the cusp of elimination. France has just stabbed Germany. In my view, there are three major players in this game. Italy (9), France (8), and Germany (7). Italy faces a choice of which of the warring western Great Powers to support and how fervently will be Italian support.

How to make that choice? Diplomacy Hobby statistics help. Keep in mind that stats are but a guide. A solo can be achieved without compliance with the numbers. Diplomacy games, like economies, are heterogenous. But the data should be considered.

Below are three graphs used to illustrate how one might consider statistical factors in planning an Italian strategy. The chart below shows the Great Powers eliminated in Italian solos.

italy solo

Austria is dead which is great. Eighty percent of all Italian solos involve dead Austrias. Who next to kill to improve Italian solo chances? Obviously, that target would be Turkey, a decision this sharp Italian has already made.

Great Diplomacy players are skilled at managing events in all theaters. Even theaters in which they no longer operate. Italy has no units in the west. But the west is vitally important to Italy and events there will impact his opportunity to solo.

France has the upper hand against Germany at this point. Germany, while still strong, is at war on two fronts with Russia and France. Possibly, France has an English toady besides. Germany could be quickly eliminated if Italy helps speed that process. Is that a smart course for Italy?

German Eliminations

The data above suggests that would be unwise for Italy to attack Germany. Italy’s chances of a solo bottom out when Germany dies. Considering the current diplomatic situation, a German elimination is much more likely than a French.

What happens to Italy’s chances when France is eliminated?

french eliminations

Based on the data here, Italian solos decrease in likelihood when either France or Germany dies. This leads me to conclude that Italy’s choice here should be to come to the aid of Germany. Maybe Italy does not even insist on Munich.

Italy’s chances for a solo increase best by killing Turkey and keeping France and Germany locked in a wrestling match for a while, neither gaining an upper hand on the other.

Based on this analysis, Italy should insist on Russia disbanding some of his northern units, and promote Russia joining a southern campaign against Turkey. It would be ideal if Russia keeps his northern fleet, which could swing the balance in favor of Germany in the French-German struggle. In exchange, Italy makes Germany give Russia Warsaw. An Italian mediated peace between Germany and Russia needs to happen at this point in the game for two reasons. One, Russian help will expedite the Turkish demise. Second, Germany can neutralize the French stab and that helps Italy in the long run. There you have it, Italy.

Thank you Joshua McOwen for a brilliant piece. A Look at the Statistics of Diplomacy, Joshua McOwen (May 2011)

 

Kentucky Sportswriter @MrsTylerKSR calls #Gamecocks Home Opener “Most Important.” Life is a Circle.

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circle_of_life_simba[1]It’s the wheel of fortune
It’s the leap of faith
It’s the band of hope
Till we find our place
On the path unwinding
In the circle, the circle of life

Elton John

This circle. Around and around. It was a decade ago. Is history about to repeat?

It was Thursday night, October 4, 2007. Kentucky football was 5-0 and ranked 8th nationally. Andre’ Woodson was a Heisman candidate and the Wildcats were averaging 46.6 points per game. Everyone was thinking was this the year Kentucky would emerge as SEC East Champions? They were favored to beat the Gamecocks that night.

However, a big Thursday night Gamecock crowd rattled Woodson and Eric Norwood had a night. In the end, it was the Gamecocks 38-23.  ESPN Recap

The pre-season hype for Kentucky is real. The Kentucky sportswriters are already calling the 2017 Gamecock-Wildcat matchup the most important game on Kentucky’s schedule. See Why the South Carolina game is the most important of Kentucky’s season

But it’s the Gamecocks’ home opener. It is going to be be a crazy night. Sorry, Mrs. Thompson. Life’s a circle. Elton John’s a Gamecock.

The @GamecocksFB Team Picked to Lose 8 in 2017 by @ESPNBooger

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There is no doubt about his football credentials. Anthony Darelle “Booger” McFarland, the former LSU defensive lineman, had a successful NFL career including two Superbowl rings. His commentary on the SEC Network in 2016 was consistently spot on. He even predicted that the Tennessee Volunteers will be “abysmal” in 2017, a prediction I can live with.

However, Booger lacks faith in the Gamecocks. Looking at that daunting schedule, Booger sees only four wins. Even Tennessee beats us. Ouch.

Don’t miss @DragonCon: Maybe the best #boardgaming con in the world.

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Today, the world is more accepting of geeks. It’s been a rising tide that lifted the science fiction, fantasy and pop culture convention industry. The mainstreaming of geek culture has turned DragonCon into a huge event.

Take a gander at this list of fan “tracks.” Each track represents another genre into which a Convention attendee may immerse herself.

If I were to be forced to select favorites at this time, my list, in no particular order, would look like this:

There are so many cool things to see  and do at this event.

This Con started off as a Sci-Fi and gaming convention and morphed into a huge combination of all things geek. Audacious.

This Con is right in our backyard, Atlanta, Georgia, on Labor Day weekend, September 1-4, 2017.

#Gamecocks Football Resurgence? @PatrickDye3 says, “yeah.”

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Some good things come out of the Paul Finebaum podcast. Like on Monday, July 3, when Paul and Pat Dye were discussing the best four coaching jobs in the SEC, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, and LSU. Dye argued that a State schools has an advantage over the other schools within the same State. He acknowledged that Auburn was disadvantaged in this regard.

Dye explained the rest of his formula for greatness; a State with plenty of good high school football players and a people that love football. I instantly put mental check marks next to South Carolina on both counts. As if reading my mind, Dye brought up South Carolina. He continued:

I’ll be shocked if [ @CoachWMuschamp ] don’t get the thing turned around in South Carolina.

Listen to the rest of Dye’s remarks on this clip.

Here is a legendary SEC coach recognizing that the South Carolina Gamecocks could be in the same level as Georgia, Florida, Alabama, and LSU. The parting shot at Clemson was sweet as well . . . .

Ah . . . oh . . . youknow … it won’t be a gravy train like it has been for Clemson that past three or four years.

 

 

#Gamecocks Prepare for 2017: @JakeBentley19 and @bobbybentley ‘s Outrageous Comments about the Clemson Game

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A Fox Carolina sports interview caught Jake and Bobby Bentley’s recent remarks about the Clemson game, a 56-7 loss. Clemson fans have been quick to ridicule Jake’s comments, “they were not that much better than us.” Even Clemson’s star quarterback, @DeshaunWatson, has chimed in: 

In the clip, Jake Bentley explained how the lopsided loss provides off-season motivation for the Gamecocks. His comment is reminiscent of Dabo Sweeny’s remarks after Clemson was waxed 51-14 by Florida State in 2013: “If we played FSU 10 times, they probably win five and we’d win five.”

More interesting to me in this clip, was the comment by Bobby Bentley about closing the talent gap with Clemson through recruiting.

We’ve got guys like Jake that are picking South Carolina over Alabama. Picking South Carolina over LSU. Picking South Carolina over Georgia.

Indeed, the 2017 recruiting class, while not overwhelming in terms of star power, does reflect that the Gamecocks won recruiting battles against traditional powers as well as their in-state rival, Clemson.

recruiting 2017