MY @TGFBI COMPETITORS OF LEAGUE 3: DAN MARCUS @_danmarcus

Next up is Dan Marcus, a fellow law dog, and fantasy baseball writer. Dan writes for Rotowire and Baseball HQ. Dan wrote an interesting-looking article detailing roster construction for winning NFBC leagues. It’s behind a BaseballHQ paywall, but the tweet has an excerpt. Now thinking of renewing my BaseballHQ sub:

Optimizing @TheNFBC roster construction to find a path to victory. Articles like this are why I subscribe to @BaseballHQ. Look forward to future deep dives by @_danmarcus

Many paths to draft towards a winning team, but remember, you still have to do the work during the season. https://t.co/S3af7T3HQ7
— Fantasy Baseball Mindset (@FBMindset) February 11, 2022

Dan finished 166/435 in the 2021 TGFBI competition, and 78/305 for 2020.

Dan writes about fantasy football for Rotowire.

Here’s a link to the draft board for League 3. I’m Team 1 on the board.

Gambling on @JorgeAlfaro11

Jorge Alfaro, the Miami Marlins starting catcher, is faster than Christian Yelich. Hard to believe, but true. He is also the fastest catcher in MLB. Alfaro posted a 28.8 feet per second sprint speed surpassing Yelich and Realmuto who both posted a 28.7 time. That speed hasn’t translated yet into bags. Alfaro had just 4 SB last season. Still, it’s not the zero you get from most catchers.

A February 13 story by @JoeFrisaro on MLB’s site about Alfaro is intriguing. it suggested Alfaro will be faster n 2020. Trim Alfaro could be even faster this season The story had some other reasons to be optimistic about Alfaro’s 2020 season, including the fact he allegedly packed on muscle and lost 15 pounds. If my math is right, Alfaro is now 6’2, 210. I usually don’t put a lot of stock in such stories when ranking players and consider them basically noise. But it is interesting.

Here is an image of Alfaro’s 2019 Statcast page. Note the very fine scores for average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel rate. These are all useful metrics for predicting a player’s future power statistics like home runs or WOBA.

Alfaro’s first flaw is his 33.1% strikeout rate. His second is a lower than normal launch angle of 4.7 degrees. Even though Alfaro hits the ball very hard, he does not elevate it and that suppresses his power. His launch angle actually decreased 50% from his 2017 and 2018 seasons. Alfaro has some work to do, which is why I was able to grab him in round 15 at pick 217 of my current 15-team Draft Champions league.

I’m probably a bit optimistic here with my pick 217. Alfaro’s average ADP is 227 so this was slightly ahead of where he normally goes in these DC drafts. I took him over Carson Kelly, who is another very interesting young catcher.

In the shortened 2020 season, plate appearances are an important currency. That was why I took Alfaro over Carson, who I think is often going to be platooned with Stephen Vogt for the Diamondbacks.

Alfaro had 465 plate appearances last season for the Marlins. That puts Alfaro at 6th among catchers for 2019 plate appearances, just ahead of Yadier Molina and Buster Posey. As noted on the statcast report embedded above, his pop time for throws to second base is near elite. His defense should keep him in the game. The Marlins actually traded JT Realmuto for Alfaro and several other prospects. So his organization loves him. Alfaro is expected to bat 6th for the Marlins per Roster Resource, which isn’t a terrible spot in the order for a catcher.

Alfaro has a prospect pedigree. He signed with Texas in 2010 for $1.3M as a 16-year old Columbian. In 2013, he was ranked by Baseball America as the 54th best baseball prospect. I love that Alfaro, even after signing a $500,000 one year contract with Miami, went back to Columbia this winter and worked on his father’s farm in Columbia. That’s loyalty and shows character. This all adds up to a potentially untapped upside for Alfaro. That’s where I live, if possible, getting upside catchers with cool stories late in a DC.

Optimism: Why the owners must settle with the MLPA, i.e., there will be 2020 baseball.

The current MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires following the 2021 season. The Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) will be seeking massive changes. So much so that there is a significant chance of a player walkout during the 2021 such as what happened in 1994 when a walkout cancelled MLB’s post season. See Baseball strike in 1994-95 began 25 years ago, Craig Calcaterra (NBC Aug. 12, 2019).

There is so much money at stake here owners must play a long game in 2020 so that they will gain an upper hand in the 2021 CBA negotiations. They will cave now and insure some kind of 2020 season takes place. Thus, owners will seem to be heroes. They take the high road in the court of public opinion. This will put greater pressure on the MLBPA to compromise in the upcoming 2021 CBA negotiations and the owners can use that to get a better deal.

Under the current CBA, which has been in place since 2016, MLB owners have seen large operating revenue increases. Last season, they began receiving local revenue and e-sports revenue will only increase further. Not surprisingly, the value of equity in MLB teams has increased. The MLB owners are in a great place economically.

On the other hand, players are taking it on the chin. In 2018, player revenue decreased for the first time in decades. That trend continued in 2019. One factor was the luxury tax, which created a financial disincentive for large market teams to dip into the free agent pool. Another factor was a subgroup of owners who do not seem to care about whether their franchises win. This group of loser owners prioritize minimizing payroll. These are important reasons why players salaries are lagging despite a large upsurge in operating revenue. But they aren’t the biggest factor. The biggest factor is service time.

The CBA service time rule determines when a player becomes eligible for free agency. Under the current CBA, a baseball player does not become eligible for free agency until after their 6th season of MLB “service time.” Service time is easily manipulated by owners. No example illustrates this more vividly than the case of Kris Bryant.

Bryan lost a grievance against the Chicago Cubs this off season accusing the Cubs owner of manipulating his service time to steal a year of free agency. See Kris Bryant Loses Grievance as Trade Rumors Begin Anew, Craig Edwards (Fangraphs Jan. 29, 2020). The Cubs kept Bryant in the minor leagues until one day after the date when calling him up would qualify him for free agency at the end of 2021, Bryant’s age 30 season. The Cubs argued it was just coincidental. Bryant lost in arbitration. It’s hard to prove intent. Therefore, Bryant does not become eligible for free agency for two years, his age 31 season.

The problem is that by the time Bryant becomes a free agent, his skills will likely have eroded so far he will be unable to demand a decent contract. His MLB statistics indicate Bryant’s best days may already be behind him. If Bryant would have become a free agent during his peak years, he would have had the leverage to negotiate a sizable, long-term contract, one that was based upon the fair market value of his services at the time when he was at his peak.

I’m not saying Bryant may not turn around the trend shown by the three graphs above. He could. However, the data for baseball players as a group suggests he has passed his prime.

The service time issue is huge. Players believe current CBA is unfair to the players whose peak performance is arriving at a younger and younger ages.

The owners need as much leverage as possible in that CBA negotiation. They cannot be seen now as greedy billionaires taking advantage of a pandemic to gain hand over the players. They will aim to gain political capital by appearing to be the good guys in 2020. They will then use that political capital to slime the players when they create a work stoppage in 2021. There is too much money at stake regarding player free agency for the owners to risk anything else.

Is Wilmer Flores the Next Ketel Marte?

On February 12, 2020, the Giants and Wilmer Flores agreed on a two-year, $6.25M contract. Flores, a 28-year old utility infielder, is ignored by most in the fantasy baseball community. Since March 1, Flores (ADP 551) has been drafted on NFBC somewhere between picks 381 (high) and 642 (low). I believe Flores is significantly undervalued and should be picked before his teammates Dubon and Crawford. Here is my analysis on why Flores is a smart late round bet for Draft Champion (DC) draft and hold leagues.

Let’s start with his 2020 projection. The five systems on Fangraphs have Flores projected for only around 350 plate appearances. ATC, which is the highest on Flores, predicts he will hit 13 homeruns during the season. Those projections make Flores essentially undraftable. If the projections are true, you’re better off betting on the Giants rookie prospect, Maurico Dubon. But if Flores’s actual 2020 plate appearances end up significantly exceeding his projections, Flores has more fantasy value than Dubon, who ranks 482th in MLB for barrels per batted ball event (2.3%).

Fangraphs’ Giants Roster Resource page projects Flores for a short-side platoon role. My belief is that Roster Resources is wrong about Flores 2020 role. I see him as an everyday player for the Giants.

First, the Giants signed Flores, who plays all four infield positions, to an unusual (for them) two-year contract. This indicates the Giants have a bigger plan for Flores. The Giants’ plan isn’t hard to figure out. Flores crushed left handed pitching in 2019 (.982 OPS). First baseman, Brandon Belt’s OPS against lefties in 2019 was only .664. Even worse was the Giants long-time left hand hitting shortstop, Brandon Crawford. Crawford’s 2019 OPS against lefties was .598, which is intolerable. Flores’s plate appearances against lefty pitching is a lock.

The split charts below show Flores expected statistics compared with several teammates with whom Flores will compete for 2020 plate appearances:

As you can observe from the middle (RHP pitching) chart, Flores hits right handed pitching as well as Crawford and Dubon and strikes out far less. Crawford’s playing time is especially in jeopardy as his OPS verses right handed pitching was just .674 verses Flores .762. OPS is a metric that measures a players on base percentage and power. It is useful as a general statistic to predict playing time. Players whose OPS sinks below .680 typically start losing playing time.

One could speculate that Crawford’s good defense might keep him in the lineup at shortstop over Flores. But Giants manager Gabe Kapler recently said the Giants will play Dubon at shortstop or centerfield (displacing non-roster invitee Billy Hamilton). Such moves for Dubon opens the door for Flores to play 2B every day even when Crawford is in the lineup at shortstop. However, both Dubon and Flores also play shortstop. Crawford is the odd man out in terms of 2020 plate appearances.

Suddenly, it looks like Flores has massive opportunity in 2020. Can he take advantage? Take a look at Flores’ OPS history since 2013.

This profile demonstrates a capable hitter who is better than the league average. Considering the replacement level of players available to the Giants, Flores will likely play a lot against right handed pitching. Flores is going to be a near every-day player for the Giants and he will easily exceed his plate appearance projections.

Flores 2019 batting average of .317 was compiled in only 285 plate appearances for the Diamondbacks. I don’t think we can expect a .300 hitter in Flores. (The projections for Flores project a batting average of around .270.) Flores 5.1% barrels is slightly less than the MLB average. But Flores has a near optimal 16.3 degree launch angle and a groundball rate that is well below league average.

Those are two power metrics which indicate a possible late growth in power. Could Flores, who is just 28, become a late-blooming breakout candidate like Ketel Marte? Stranger things have happened.

In any case, even without the upside dream, its a no-brainer to conclude that Flores’s plate appearances in 2020 will substantially exceed the projections. Thus, Flores will at least be a decent source as a runs and RBI accumulator playing regularly in the middle of Giants lineup. This is exactly the kind of fantasy-relevant replacement player you want to pick late on a Draft Champions team.

How should you rank Dubon (ADP 339), Flores (ADP 551), and Crawford (ADP 554)? I think Flores is going to play a lot more for the Giants in 2020 than the touts expect. While Dubon’s is a great prospect with upside, he lacks the power of Flores. In other words, Dubon’s power metrics are a bit less exciting than those of Flores. That could change as Dubon matures. He is only 25-years old. However, for 2020, I would prefer Flores’s bat over Dubon. I would avoid drafting Crawford altogether.

#FantasyBaseball : Essential Tools from a battle axe instructor, @DolphHauldhagen

It’s late into a Fantrax Bestball game, I have pick 305 and need outfielders. By now, all the high value outfielders are gone and I’m looking for safe outfielders who will likely get plate appearances and score some fantasy points. I’ve narrowed my choices down to @spiscotty, @MCoreyDickerson, and @MTauchman.

Stephen Piscotty of the Athletics is coming off a disappointing 2019 season marred by right leg injuries. He is projected by Roster Resource as the starting right fielder and will hit toward the bottom of the A’s lineup. Piscotty is a bounce-back candidate. The charts copied below are a little unfair to Piscotty because they measure only his injury-riddled 2019 performance. In 2018, Piscotty hit 28 homeruns and that was before 2019’s happy fun-ball. I thought Piscotty was a no-brainer before I looked at his 2018 data. His x-Stats from 2018 show over-performance and were not significantly different from 2019. To make things simple, I am using Piscotty’s 2019 data here to demonstrate Alex Chamberlain’s super-cool batter evaluation tool.

Corey Dickerson is set to hit cleanup for the Marlins. He has no competition for playing time and should get plenty of plate appearances.

Mike Tauchman is set to hit at the bottom of the Yankee’s lineup. He has great speed and is an excellent defensive outfielder. Therefore, while the Yankees have 3B Miguel Andujar allegedly learning left field, I think Tauchman’s defense will allow him hold down the left-field position and maybe encroach on some of 36-year old Gardner’s playing time in center. Therefore, I estimate Tauchman will get plenty of plate appearances.

I turn to Alex Chamberlain’s leaderboard to compare the three young outfielders.

These charts are full of useful data about the three players. I’ve highlighted the sections with the most relevant information on them. The charts demonstrated a clear preference for Tauchman. In fact, I probably should have grabbed him earlier in this snake draft.

Note that the screen captures above are from Chamberlain’s updated, secret database. This secret DB is even more awesome than Chamberlain’s public DB (linked above), which is also a fantastic tool. Anyone can gain access to Chamberlain’s secret DB by sending him $5 or more, or by making a donation to your favorite charity and sending Chamberlain a screen cap.

The GOAT: @StephenGarcia

On April 9, 2013, a baby goat was born on our homestead. As soon as I saw his face, my mind went back to the October 9, 2010, post game press conference with Stephen Garcia. The Gamecocks had just trounced number one Alabama before an ecstatic home crowd. Garcia, a warrior quarterback on and off the field, never took off his eye-black for the post-game interviews. That is why Garcia is Garcia.

My Prediction for the @TarHeelFootball Offensive Game Plan for the #Gamecocks

Everyone is aware that the North Carolina Tarheels re-hired their old coach Mack Brown. Brown immediately retained excellent coordinators including Offensive Coordinator (OC) Phil Longo, formerly of Ole Miss. In last year’s game against the Rebels, Longo’s offense scored 44 points and accumulated 616 yards against the 2018 Gamecocks’ defense.

Philosophically, Longo employs the air raid spread style of offense. This is the high octane spread derived from Mike Leach or Hal Mumme offensive schemes. The receivers are taught to take what the defense gives them——to seek green grass. Quarterbacks and receivers read, react, and adjust to the defense on the fly.

Most assume the TarHeel air raid offense will be pass happy. However, Brown and Longo (quoted below) downplay expectations for 60-70 pass-attempt offense.

Brown has said the “Air Raid” description might be “overused” because he wants the Tar Heels to have a power running component to go with the ability to throw the ball downfield. And that’s where the trio of returning backs come in.

Brown, Tar Heels open camp with clear strength: running back

The philosophy is Air Raid – we throw the ball that way – but there’s going to be a downhill power run element to the offense that we think is very important

Rushing Attack in Play for Phil Longo’s Air Raid 247 Rushing Attack in Play for Phil Longo’s Air Raid 247 Rushing Attack in Play for Phil Longo’s Air Raid 247

The TarHeels announced that Sam Howell, a true freshman, is now QB1 for the TarHeels. The receivers are learning Longo’s new schemes and lack significant playing experience. Likewise, the first team offensive line lacks experience. Look at this first team offensive lineman chart.

The lack of experience on the OL must be a major concern for the Tarheel coaches. It is much more difficult to teach young offensive linemen to pass block. That would require communication and understanding perhaps beyond the capabilities of these young TarHeel lineman at this particular time, especially considering the multiple Gamecock defense. Pass blocking mistakes are inevitable.

The line’s inexperience coupled with inexperience at critical offensive position of quarterback and receiver suggest that undertaking a passing attack against the Gamecock defense would be a much riskier strategy than telling these big boys up front to cut loose and run bock. If Brown and Longo start pitching it all over the place on Saturday, interceptions and sacks seem probable.

Brown and Longo know that the strength of the TarHeel offense is the running backs. They have three excellent backs in Antonio Williams (5’11”, 210), an Ohio State transfer, speedy Michael Carter (5-9, 195), and Javonte Williams (5’10”, 205). The dual-threat, freshman quarterback Sam Howell (6’0″, 225) is build more like a running back than a prototypical NFL QB.

They know the 2018 Gamecocks defense yielded 195.3 yards per game rushing. In 2018, the Gamecocks ranked 95th overall in FCS against the rush.

There is no question the Tarheels will pass a good bit under Longo. However, I look for them to exploit their offensive strength, running back, and minimize risk. I would be very surprised if they exceed 30 pass attempts. They will test the Gamecocks with that big ole offensive line.

Surging @GamecockBasebll bypasses numerous RPI darlings. Finishes 5th in SEC.

We present the SEC conference standings juxtaposed against the RPI.

Congratulations. Left for dead at one point in the season, @CoachKingUSC’s #Gamecocks baseball team pummelled RPI darling Texas A&M (18th before the series) on the road. The A&M series must have turned the NCAA RPI statistician’s face beet red. The Gamecocks final SEC record is 17-13, ahead of five SEC RPI darlings.

Seriously. The NCAA’s RPI statistic seems very flawed. Perhaps games later in the season should be weighted more heavily. That would insure the hottest teams get seeded properly for the upcoming NCAA baseball tournament.

RPI rankings seem random. Who even knows if the RPI will be of much relevance to the Committee selecting regional pairings on Memorial Day.

SEC Commissioner @GregSankey Latest Victim of @MizzouAthletics Unprofessional AD

There might have been some who figured Jim Sterk was in over his head when Missouri hired him to run their athletic department. His experience as the AD at Portland State could not prepare him for his role as an AD at an SEC school. That he is in over his head is now obvious.

A few weeks ago, after 16,000 plus South Carolina womens’ basketball fans booed the dirtiest women’s basketball team in the SEC out of their coliseum with their tails between their legs, a former Mizzou player leveled a sore-loser and false charge that Missouri players were spit upon by fans. Sterk then took to the radio waves in Missouri to allege South Carolina fans called Missouri players “the N word,” and moreover, he asserted Dawn Staley, the acclaimed Gamecocks coach, fomented the racially hostile environment for Missouri’s nearly all white basketball team. Those remarks were picked up by mainstream sports media and broadcast nationally.

Ray Tanner conducted an investigation into the allegations of alleged racist fan behavior and spitting. He interviewed numerous law enforcement personnel and staff and nobody heard any racist epithets. An NBC affiliate released video showing the Missouri players exiting the arena without incident or unusual reaction protected by the extra law enforcement lining the tunnel. The game was covered by ESPN nationally and by numerous journalists. None in attendance reported hearing racist and redneck insults.

In fact, all of the Missouri allegations are baseless and Sterk’s complaints were completely unsubstantiated (except for a loser tweet by the former Missouri player).

Sterk’s allegation was so scurrilous that a confused Tanner was forced to respond and report to the SEC league office. The SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey received Tanner’s complaint and now sits on it without any further action against the idiotic Sterk.

Action is required because Sterk’s remarks are clearly in violation of SEC league Sportsmanship bylaws.

A fine of Sterk here is absolutely required.

In view of the Commissioner’s recent swift fine of Frank Martin (for complaining about refs), this issue has once again come to a head. There is a double-standard. How can you fine Martin but let the complete idiot Sterk slide for what is obviously a much more serious infraction?

In this day and age, there is no charge against an Institution and its fans that is more inflammatory and hurtful than a charge of racism. It is especially true in a place like South Carolina that has worked hard to overcome history. For fans to be labeled as racist rednecks by some clueless dude from Portland, probably because he is not used to passionate and loud women’s basketball environment, an environment which is good for the SEC and women’s basketball, is unacceptable.

Sankey must act and he must act soon. Otherwise, his administration will suffer as an additional victim of the idiot Sterk’s inopportune, baseless, and stupid allegations against South Carolina and Dawn Staley. Sankey looks increasingly weak as he lets Sterk’s insult linger with no action from his office. Sterk’s Forest Gump press releases are not enough. Act.

#Gamecocks WBB Scuffles with Mizzou … Dish it Out

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